Robust Analysis

Readings and occasional commentary

Robust Analysis

Vulnerability is, to some degree, a choice

I can’t find it now but several days ago I received an email from an organization I have a peripheral relation to that they are committed to “protect[ing] their vulnerable population.”  Protecting people is good but “vulnerable” didn’t sit well with me.  One of my goals in life is to avoid being vulnerable.  You and I may have limited ability to affect whether we’re marginalized but vulnerability is, to some degree, within our control.  If a bully punches you, gouge him in the eyes.  Impress upon him that his aggression will cost him.

I write this in the context of the Democratic Party having inflicted no meaningful damage on Trump for his lawlessness.  That’s not recent.  It goes back to his first term.  People have let Trump skate all his life.  He’ll continue until he’s forcibly stopped.

The criminal interview:

This is where the criminal decides if you are safe to attack.

Yes, with all violence, the assailant’s safety is a critical factor in deciding whether or not to attack…

“Can I get away with it?” is a major motivation for what people decide to do — or not do. Hence, the interview.

This is one interview you want to fail. If you fail, the assailant decides that he cannot successfully, or easily, attack you. Then if he is a criminal, he will proceed to seek easier prey.

Continue reading

Identity Politics

As much as left-wing identity politics are counterproductive and annoying, right-wing identity politics are vile.  Trump and co are right-wing identity politics 24/7/365.

Michael Ignatieff, I was born liberal. The ‘adults in the room’ still have a lot to learn:

By the late 1990s, the conservatives began to gain power by playing to the resentments of the ignored. The authoritarian right, especially, understood that it could build an entire politics on mocking the blindness of the liberal elite. It didn’t need solutions; stoking the rage was enough. We are now the embattled object of that rage. What will it take to earn the trust of those whose discontent we ignored? Liberalism in the next generation will need to save social solidarity from the “creative destruction” of the market by rebuilding the fiscal capacity of the liberal state and investing in the public goods that underpin a common life for all. Saying this, at a high level of generality, is easy enough: The tougher part will be finding the language and the cunning to convert a radical liberalism into a politics that wins elections and a governing strategy that pushes change through the veto-rich thicket of interests waiting to derail our best-laid plans.

The Laken Riley Act

The Laken Riley Act passed 84-9 in the Senate and 251-170 in the House.

What problems will the Laken Riley Act help fix?

The acute issues at the US-Mexico border are:

  1. Insufficient government capacity to process asylum applications and other requests to enter the country;
  2. Limited housing, school capacity, and medical services for migrants.

The first issue could be addressed by adding staff to process applications;  the second by helping would-be Americans settle in areas where there is adequate housing supply, school capacity, etc. The latter is a real issue. Even if money were no object, there are material limits on the goods and services that can be provided to people seeking them.  There are finite number of homes, schools, doctors and nurses, etc. and additional ones can’t be created immediately on demand.  Infrastructure takes time to build.  It takes time for people to learn the skills that make them capable professionals.  Exceed the capacity of the system and it breaks down.  With that in mind, fewer people might seek to immigrate if the quality of life in their home country was more favorable, e.g., better economic and educational opportunities, less authoritarian government and/or social environment, lower crime. Towards that end, foreign aid to the countries that people are leaving might be helpful.

The Laken Riley Act addresses none of these things. One thing it will do however is deprive some people of due process based on their immigration status. Nothing good will come of that. Overall, it is a cynical, hateful piece of legislation. I thanked my Senators and Congressman for voting No.  (The motivation for this post were the Yes votes from craven Senate Democrats.)

Our community welcomes new neighbors and most of us are fine with some change, but communities have a finite capacity for growth before growth becomes disruptive.  Most of us are also quite willing to provide resources to other communities when they’re trying to lift themselves up, but our resources are finite.  Acknowledging preferences and limitations doesn’t prevent us from doing good.  We have goodwill and the capacity to help people who fear for their and their families’ well-being in their home community.  Let’s figure out how best to help them and get about doing so.

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“The System Failed”

From Dan Drezner’s, My Extremely Brief Take on January 6th:

Folks are going to point out that today marked a peaceful transfer of power, overseen by the loser of the last presidential election, and isn’t that a great thing for democracy?! Usually, it is. But the fact remains that the only reason for the peace is because the guy who has threatened or fomented political violence for the last ten years won the election this time around. America’s political elite appeased a bully, the American people endorsed that strategy, and now America’s economic elite is falling all over itself to appease the bully some more.

And when you think about that dynamic for more than half a second, you realize how pathetic it makes this country sound.

Useless Idiots: Vichy Liberals Are Not Our Friends

RFK Jr. is a grifter and a crank.  Unfortunately, Sens. Sanders and Fetterman are apparently open to supporting him for HHS Secretary.  Many will die if he is empowered to put his malevolent ideology into practice.  He must be stopped.  It would be depraved indifference for them to vote to confirm.

RFK Jr. has apologists beyond Sanders and Fetterman.  Give them no quarter.  From Dr. Benjamin Mazer, The Sanewashing of RFK Jr.:

Let’s be clear: Many scientists consider Kennedy to be a fool, and a ludicrous pick to run HHS, because the evidence supports that assessment. [Former Baltimore Public Health Commission and former Planned Parenthood President Leana] Wen nods to this in passing—Kennedy has a “long history of antiscience propagandism,” she writes—but otherwise she’s focused on the nitty-gritty of one particular public-health debate. So allow me to fill in some gaps: According to his 2021 book, The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health, RFK Jr. believes that Fauci and Gates are members of a “vaccine cartel” trying to kill patients by denying them hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin. He argues that this cartel secretly funded doctors to produce fraudulent studies showing that the drugs were ineffective against COVID—and that it did so in order to orchestrate global lockdowns and accelerate the construction of 5G cellular networks, which, in Kennedy’s understanding, are very, very bad.

From Gabriel Schoenfeld, Before Crackpot RFKism There Was Crackpot Lysenkoism: Continue reading

Burn-It-All-Down Populism

Catherine Rampell, Fan club for suspected shooter is a symptom of burn-it-all-down populism:

Public praise for a killer is an escalation of a troubling trend: bloodlust for destruction & retribution. Americans are rejecting leaders who propose solutions for problems, in favor of antiheroes who just want to burn everything down—figuratively or literally.

I disagree with Rampell’s characterization of Senator Warren’s statement as expressing sympathy with Mangione – Warren offered an explanation of the motivations for vigilantism, not an excuse for it – but otherwise I concur with her take:

Here’s the thing about indulging this annihilative reflex to infuriating social problems: Besides the obvious moral odiousness, it doesn’t fix the problems.

Murdering health-care executives won’t help more Americans get care. Purging the FBI won’t reduce crime. Jailing political enemies won’t lower egg prices.

It’s easier to break something than to build it. But to solve a problem, something eventually needs to be built. That part is boring, hard and, lately, not well appreciated by the public.