U.S. Real GDP Growth

From the St. Louis Fed, here’s the annual growth in real (inflation-adjusted) U.S. Gross Domestic Product since 1947:

US_Real_GDP_Growth

UMass economist Gerald Friedman predicts that, among other things, Bernie Sanders’ economic plan will raise GDP growth to 5.3%.   That’s very high by contemporary standards and his prediction has caused a major kerfuffle within housebroken liberal economist circles – see also here.  We haven’t had GDP growth that high since the early ’80s when we were coming out of a severe recession.  As you can see from the chart, prior to that GDP growth >5.3% was a pretty regular occurrence.   Can we make it a regular thing again?  I’m not sure but I’m skeptical.  The world is very different now than it was 35, 40, or 50 years ago.  (That was pre-globalization.  We had a manufacturing advantage of much of the rest of the world.)  5.3% growth now seems like a stretch.  That’s a factor of about 2.5x over current.  Still, if Sanders was able to enact his platform (perhaps during his second term after people who support it take the majority in the House and Senate;-) and growth were even half of what Friedman predicts that would be a significant improvement over current.

Weekly Digest – February 14, 2016

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Thought for the Day: February 9, 2016

From an email correspondence a couple months back last year:

There’s a whole philosophy of “change theory” about what actually helps people cultivate change in their lives and what doesn’t that I think we (especially in Puritan New England!) sometimes forget about.  Deep change is slow, involves lots of false starts and short retreats alongside the exciting times of progress.  In order to sustain commitment to deep change, there must be a sense of joy simply in one’s commitment to the goal of deep change.  This joy inspires us to take risks, and it keeps us from being too harsh on ourselves when we face setbacks. 

I’m not predisposed to joy, which makes that challenging for me, but I believe he’s absolutely correct.

Thought for the Day: February 8, 2016

The Great Recession is the culmination of policies which have the effect of screwing middle-class people who get the vast majority of their income via wages.  I’m referring to policies and legislation which provide advantage capital over labor. While middle-class white people have gotten the shaft since the start of the Great Recession, middle-class African-Americans and Hispanics have gotten it much worse.

Weekly Digest – February 7, 2016

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Thought for the Day: February 6, 2016

Thirty five years of one step forward, two steps back is enough for me. It’s time to mount a counteroffensive. “So long as our candidate is pro-choice and supports same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization that’s good enough” isn’t good enough for me.  I’m sick of perpetual war.  I’m sick of policies which advantage capital over labor and result in decent jobs getting shipped overseas.  I’m sick of politicians who brush off the environmental destruction we’re wreaked for the past 100+ years.  All those meat and potatoes liberal declarations that Clinton has made since Sanders has challenged her? I firmly believe that she will walk them all back once she takes office. That’s where I’m coming from. I’ve had enough.